[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 February 21 issued 2333 UT on 28 Feb 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 1 10:33:56 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 28 February with a
C3.9 flare at 0646UT from active region 2804 (N19W84 Dso/beta).
AR2804 also produced a C2.7 flare on 27 February at 1751U. There
was a CME associated with the C2.7 flare on 27 February but it
is not directed towards the Earth. Weak CME activity observed
after 28/1200UT, however large data gap limited further analysis.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next
UT day 1 March, with a chance of more C-class flares and a slight
chance of an M-class flare due to the flaring potential of AR2804.
The region AR2804 is expected to rotate to the far-side of the
Sun on UT day 1 March. Solar activity is expected to be very
low on UT days 2-3 March. On 28 February, the solar wind speed
continued a gradual declining trend, changing from 387 km/s to
347 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south component of
the IMF (Bz) ranges were 1-6 nT and +3/-5 nT, respectively. The
solar wind speed is expected to increase to moderate levels on
UT day 1 March in response to a Southern Polar coronal hole with
extension in the low latitude regions reaching geoeffective location
on the solar disk. Solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced
for UT days 2-3 March due to continuing effects of the coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11001122
Cocos Island 2 01000122
Darwin 3 12000113
Townsville 4 11001123
Learmonth 3 11001122
Alice Springs 3 11000023
Gingin 3 11000032
Canberra 2 12001012
Hobart 2 12001012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 02001012
Casey 11 24411032
Mawson 20 13112165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1120 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 18 Quit to active with possible minor storm levels.
02 Mar 12 Quiet to active.
03 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 28 February
and is current for 1-2 Mar. On UT day 28 February, mostly quiet
conditions were observed in the Australian region. Quiet to storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. On UT day 1 March
geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to active with possible
minor storm periods due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to active
levels are expected on UT day 2 March with quiet to unsettled
conditions on UT day 3 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions may be observed
on UT days 1-3 March due to expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 28 February, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E layers
were observed, strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 1-3 March. Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions may
be observed due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 50800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list