[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 30 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 29 June with a
series of B-class flares, mainly from region 2835 but also from
region 2837. Currently there are three numbered regions on the
visible disk: AR 2835 (S18E11), AR 2836 (S28E07) and AR 2837
(N17E56). A large filament eruption was observed in H-alpha and
SDO images around 29/05 UT near N18E10. There were no CMEs observed
in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low on UT days 30 June until 02 July. On 29
June, the solar wind speed increased from 310 km/s up to 345
km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
be near background levels to slightly enhanced on UT days 30
June to 02 July, due to weak coronal hole effects and possible
minor CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 10000110
Cocos Island 1 01100110
Darwin 1 11000111
Townsville 1 11000111
Learmonth 0 00000110
Alice Springs 0 00000110
Gingin 1 10000110
Canberra 0 10000100
Hobart 0 00000110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 12101120
Mawson 16 31012263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2001 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 29 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet with one storm period. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT
days 30 June to 02 July, due to weak coronal hole effects and
possible minor CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 30 June until 02 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of moderate
enhancements during the local night in the Southern Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 30 June until 02 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 21000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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