[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jun 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 28 09:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jun             29 Jun             30 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 June, with 
only weak B-class flares. Currently there are two numbered region 
on the visible disk, AR 2835 (S18E38) and AR 2836 (S29E32). There 
was a westward CME observed in Lasco and Stereo-A coronagraph 
images around 27/0400 UT, that could be from a prominence on 
the west limb visible in SDO 304 images at 27/0338 UT and further 
investigation is being done but it is unlikely to be geoeffective. 
No other significant CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
images. Solar activity is expected to be very low on UT days 
28-30 June. There is a small chance of C-class flares on UT days 
29-30 June as new regions rotate over the eastern limb. On 27 
June, the solar wind speed was between 325 km/s and 385 km/s. 
The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be 
near its nominal levels on UT days 28-29 June. Then on UT day 
30 June, the solar wind speed is expected to be elevated to slightly 
enhanced levels due to a northern hemisphere coronal hole moving 
into geoeffective position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00101000
      Cocos Island         0   00101000
      Darwin               1   10101000
      Townsville           1   01001011
      Learmonth            1   00111000
      Alice Springs        0   00001000
      Gingin               0   00101000
      Canberra             1   010-----
      Hobart               0   00001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   01102000
      Mawson               2   21102100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1112 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jun     5    Quiet
29 Jun     5    Quiet
30 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were quiet on UT day 27 June. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 28-29 June. Then on 
UT day 30 June, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected due 
to coronal hole activity.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 28-30 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jun    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 27 June were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 28-30 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    67100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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