[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 22 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 June. Currently
there is one numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2833 (N25W23).
Two active regions are about to rotate over the eastern limb.
There was a DSF observed in H-alpha and SDO images around 21/10
UT near N12W35. There was also a weak westward CME observed in
Lasco and Stereo-A coronagraph images around 21/1348 UT that
may be associated with this DSF, unlikely to have any earth directed
component. No other CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
images. A large filament in the NW quadrant is monitored for
any eruption. Solar activity is expected to be very low to on
UT days 22-24 June with a slight chance of a C-class flare. On
21 June, the solar wind speed was between 330 km/s and 390 km/s.
The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be
near background levels on UT day 22 June. A northern polar coronal
hole extension plus a small southern hemisphere coronal hole
may become geoeffective from UT day 23 June, elevating the solar
wind speed to slightly enhanced levels through UT day 24 June,
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 10001000
Cocos Island 0 00010000
Darwin 1 10101001
Townsville 2 21001001
Learmonth 0 10001000
Alice Springs 0 00001000
Gingin 0 00001010
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 0 00001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 11002212
Mawson 8 32110034
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0100 1013
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 5 Quiet
23 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 21 June. Isolated unsettled and active periods
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT day 22 June. Unsettled
conditions are possible on UT days 23-24 June due to weak coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal
23 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 22-24 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 21 June were
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions in the
Niue island region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values with some mild depressions on UT days 22-24 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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