[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 June 21 issued 2338 UT on 20 Jun 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 21 09:38:46 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jun             22 Jun             23 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 June. Currently 
there is one numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2833 (N25W23). 
There was a CME observed in Lasco and Stereo-A coronagraph images 
around 20/0236 UT towards the west. The source of this CME may 
be activity at 20/0117 UT near S22W68 in SDO193 and preliminary 
analysis shows a glancing blow may arrive on 24 June around 17 
UT. Another westward CME was observed in Lasco C2 around 20/0012 
UT but a source could not be found and further analysis is required. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low on UT days 21-23 June. 
On 20 June, the solar wind speed followed a decreasing trend 
from 450 km/s down to 365 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 6 nT and 
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3/-4 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to decrease to background levels on UT 
days 21-23. A northern polar coronal hole plus a small equatorial 
coronal hole in the southern hemisphere may become geoeffective 
from 23 June, elevating the solar wind speed to slightly enhanced 
levels,

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Cocos Island         2   11100002
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            2   11100002
      Alice Springs        0   00000001
      Gingin               1   11000002
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               0   00000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   22110012
      Mawson               9   11221025

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   2111 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jun     5    Quiet
22 Jun     5    Quiet
23 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 20 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were mostly quiet. Global geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 21-23 June. However, unsettled 
conditions are possible on UT day 23 June due to weak coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 21-23 June. Some mildly depressed MUFs can be expected 
at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jun     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 20 June were 
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions during 
the local day. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane 04-08 UT and 
Perth 05-09 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values with some mild depressions on UT days 21-23 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 471 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   197000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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