[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 8 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 7 June. There
are three spotted regions on the visible disk AR2827 (Axx-Alpha),
AR2829 (Dai-Beta) and AR2830 (Cao-Beta). No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the limited coronagraph images. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next three UT days 8-10 June,
with a small possibility of C-class flares. On UT day 7 June,
the solar wind speed was initially near background levels and
then increased up to 500 km/s towards the end of the day due
to a coronal hole effects. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 12 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10/-12 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be slightly to moderately enhanced
on UT day 8 June. Then the solar wind speed is expected to start
decreasing to background levels on UT days 9-10 June as coronal
effects fade.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 10 02323233
Cocos Island 8 02322232
Darwin 8 12322232
Townsville 10 12323233
Learmonth 11 11323333
Alice Springs 9 02322233
Gingin 7 01222233
Canberra 6 01223222
Hobart 6 01213222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 00014122
Casey 8 12212233
Mawson 23 23331256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2110 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 13 Mostly unsettled to active
09 Jun 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled
10 Jun 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 7 June. In the Antarctic region,
geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active with one storm period.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled
to active on UT day 8 June due to coronal hole effects. Then
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on UT days
9-10 June as coronal hole effects fade.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some mild degradations in HF propagation conditions
may occur on UT days 8-9 June. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected on UT day 10 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 7 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Southern Australian region during the local day. There
were also some enhancements in the Southern Australian region
during the local night. Mild MUF depressions may be observed
on UT days 8-9 June due to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT day 10 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 26400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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