[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 7 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 June. There
are three spotted regions on the visible disk AR2827 (Hax-Alpha),
AR2829 (Bxo-Beta) and AR2830 (Bxo-Beta). No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next three UT days, 07 to
09 June, with a small possibility of C-class flares on UT days
07 and 08 June. On UT day 06 June, the solar wind speed varied
between 305 km/s and 340 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 6 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3/-4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly near background levels initially
for UT day 07 June. Then the solar wind speed may start strengthening
from late on 07 June and stay at moderately enhanced levels throughout
UT days 08-09 June due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 10000010
Cocos Island 0 10000010
Darwin 1 10000011
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 0 10100000
Alice Springs 0 10000010
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 22111000
Mawson 6 34200000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 105 (Major storm)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1100 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 6 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible
during late hours
08 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and the Antarctic
regions were predominantly quiet on UT day 06 June with one unsettled
and one active period recorded in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet during
UT day 07 June with the possibility of some unsettled periods
from late on 07 June due to coronal hole effects. Then unsettled
to active levels are expected on UT day 08 June, followed by
mostly quiet to unsettled levels with possible active periods
on UT day 09 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT day 7 June. Some possible mild degradations may occur on
UT days 8-9 June due to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 7 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Jun 7 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 06 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some enhancements
in the Southern Australian region during the local night. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 07 June. Mild MUF depressions may be
observed on UT days 08-09 June due to the expected increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 10.6 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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