[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jul 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 31 09:30:05 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              74/11              72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 July. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days, 
31 July to 02 August. A CME from the North-West limb in LASCO 
C2 images from 28/10:12 UT seems to be near-miss for the Earth, 
but a weak glancing blow cannot be completely ruled out. No other 
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the coronagraph images 
during the last 24 hours. On UT day 30 July, the solar wind speed 
remained elevated, varying in the range 440-510 km/s. The IMF 
(Bt) peaked at 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was +5/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain moderately 
elevated on UT day 31 July. The effect of another coronal hole 
and a less likely but possible effect of the CME observed on 
28 July, may strengthen the solar wind stream on 01 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01122111
      Cocos Island         3   01122110
      Darwin               4   02222101
      Townsville           5   12222111
      Learmonth            3   01122111
      Alice Springs        3   01222100
      Gingin               4   01122121
      Canberra             2   01122001
      Hobart               2   01121000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00130000
      Casey                7   23222112
      Mawson              16   22332353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary              9   2332 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul     7    Quiet
01 Aug    12    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions were 
quiet on UT day 30 July; the Antarctic region observed mostly 
quiet to unsettled conditions on this day. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 31 July 
and 02 August. Due to the effect of another coronal hole and 
unlikely but possible weak effect from the glancing blow of the 
CME observed on 28 July, global geomagnetic activity may rise 
to unsettled levels on UT day 01 August.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 31 July to 02 August.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jul    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values; moderate enhancements were 
observed in the Southern Australian region during local night. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values on UT days 31 July to 02 August.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 524 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   314000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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