[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 30 09:30:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 29 July. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days,
30 July to 01 August. A CME from the North-West limb in LASCO
C2 images from 28/10:12 UT, seems to be near-miss for the Earth,
but a weak glancing blow can not be completely ruled out. No
other earthward directed CMEs were observed in the coronagraph
images during the last 24 hours. On UT day 29 July, the solar
wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 540 to 480 km/s, the
IMF (Bt) peaked at 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz)
range was +3/-4 nT. These decreases in the solar wind parameters
indicate waning of the coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed
is expected to continue to decrease through UT days 30 and 31
July. The effect of another coronal hole and a less likely but
possible effect of a CME observed on 28 July, may again strengthen
the solar wind stream on 01 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 22222112
Cocos Island 4 12111112
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 5 22121112
Learmonth 6 22212122
Alice Springs 5 22222111
Gingin 6 22212212
Canberra 5 12222111
Hobart 5 12222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 12322201
Casey 8 33221122
Mawson 25 45332226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 4322 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul 7 Quiet
01 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions were
quiet on UT day 29 July, whereas the Antarctic region observed
mostly quiet conditions with one active and two storm periods
on this day. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
quiet to unsettled on UT day 30 July and quiet on 31 July. Due
to the effect of another coronal hole and unlikely but possible
weak effect from the glancing blow of a CME observed on 28 July,
global geomagnetic activity may again rise to unsettled levels
on UT day 01 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 30 July to 01 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 22 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 25 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 22 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 30 July to 01 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 296000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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