[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jul 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 26 09:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jul             27 Jul             28 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 July. The two 
spotted regions, ARs 2846 (N26W04) and 2847 (S31E14) appear stable. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three 
UT days, 26-28 July. There was one faint, slow CME which was 
associated with a B2.5 flare at 0457 UT from AR2848 (N17W25) 
and a slow type II sweep. This may have an Earth directed component 
but any effect is likely to be weak, late on 29 July. No other 
CMEs were observed in the coronagraph images. On 25 July, the 
solar wind speed peaked at 471 km/s, the IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels, 
26 July. Coronal hole effects are expected to begin to moderately 
elevate the solar wind parameters in the latter half of 27 July 
and into 28 July. The modelling of the CMEs launched 24 July 
indicate near misses of Earth, however, any impacts would be 
likely on 27-28 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            1   11100000
      Alice Springs        0   11000000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   01000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12201000
      Mawson               2   11111002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1101 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jul     7    Quiet
27 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were quiet on UT day 25 July. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet on 26 July. On 27 July, conditions 
should initially be quiet, becoming unsettled to active due to 
coronal hole effects late and extending into 28 July. There is 
a chance of glancing impacts on 27 and 28 July from two CMEs. 
If either result, an isolated minor storm period is possible.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 26-28 July.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jul    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values at Townsville. Some
      depressions to 20% 00-12 UT at Darwin.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 25 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed 
at Darwin 09-16 UT and night spread F observed at Brisbane and 
Canberra. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 26-28 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 353 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    41400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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