[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 25 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 24 July with a long
duration C4.3 flare at 0033 UT from AR2849 and a C1.5 flare at
0206 UT from AR2842, just over the northwest limb. The spotted
regions on the visible disc appear stable. There were three eastward
CMEs which appear to have originated from the vicinity of AR2849,
first observed at 23/2236, 24/0048 and 24/0948 UT in LASCO C2.
The first two have been modelled as missing Earth, however, any
impact if it were to occur, would be likely on 27 July. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days,
25-27 July. On 24 July, the solar wind speed peaked at 391 km/s,
the IMF (Bt) peaked at 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be
near background levels, 25-26 July. Coronal hole effects are
expected to moderately elevate the solar wind speed in the latter
half of 27 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11000001
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 2 12000002
Learmonth 2 01110102
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Gingin 2 11000102
Canberra 1 11010001
Hobart 1 11011001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 4 12210112
Mawson 12 32212125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 7 Quiet
26 Jul 7 Quiet
27 Jul 12 Initially quiet becoming unsettled to active.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 24 July. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 25-26 July. On 27
July, conditions should initially be quiet, becoming unsettled
to active due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 25-27 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 24 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed
at Darwin 00-04 UT. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 25-27 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 94800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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