[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 January 21 issued 2337 UT on 30 Jan 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 31 10:37:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 January. The
Sun is spotless. Solar activity is expected to be very low over
the next three UT days, 31 January to 02 February. Filament eruptions
occurred near N44E90 around 0300 UT and S52E33 near 0918 UT.
The former filament produced a weak CME that is unlikely to be
geoeffective while there is no apparent CME signature in images
that could be related to the latter. There is low confidence
in the modelling of the northwest CME on 29 January. Modelling
suggests a miss. A weak southwest CME early on 30 January was
unable to be modelled. On 30 January, the solar wind speed was
below 355 km/s, the peak total IMF (Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +2/-3 nT. A coronal hole wind stream
is expected to elevate solar wind parameters on 01 February through
02 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11000100
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 10100101
Townsville 2 11110111
Learmonth 1 11000100
Alice Springs 1 11000100
Gingin 1 11000100
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 01100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 8 33321112
Mawson 6 22111223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb 20 Unsettled to Minor Storm
02 Feb 13 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 29 January and
is current for 1-2 Feb. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 30 January. Quiet to unsettled
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 January.
A recurrent coronal hole wind stream is expected to cause active
to minor storm conditions 01 to 02 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 30 January, MUFs were near predicted monthly
values, with periods of depressions in the southern hemisphere.
Mostly normal conditions are expected 31 January to 01 February
with degradations in conditions and MUFs on 02 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb -20 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 30 January
and is current for 30-31 Jan. On UT day 30 January, MUFs in lower
and mid latitudes of the Australian region were moderately depressed
in the first half of the 24 hours, then near predicted monthly
levels. Sporadic E was observed, strong at times. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on 31 January to 01 February, although daytime depressions may
continue. Sporadic E occurrences are likely. Depressions likely
on 02 February in response to expected geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 75200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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