[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 January 21 issued 2332 UT on 29 Jan 2021

Sat Jan 30 10:32:11 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 29 January. AR2800 
(N18W44), now a plage region, produced two B-class flares. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low 30 January to 01 February. 
Two filaments observed on the west limb lifted between 1130 to 
1700 UT; neither filament appeared to have footpoints on the 
visible disc. Available images show ejecta to the west and probably 
associated with these events. At this stage, it is not expected 
the events will be geoeffective but further data is required. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite 
images. On 29 January, the solar wind speed was below 425 km/s 
and declining, the peak total IMF was 4 nT and the Bz range was 
+3/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background 
levels on 30 to 31 January. A coronal hole wind stream is expected 
to begin elevating solar wind parameters on 01 February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           3   11111111
      Learmonth            1   11110001
      Alice Springs        1   01100001
      Gingin               2   11110011
      Canberra             1   01110001
      Hobart               2   11111001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   11111000
      Casey               12   34421212
      Mawson               9   23212133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   3000 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan     7    Quiet
31 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb    20    Unsettled to Active. Possible isolated Minor 
                Storm levels.

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 29 January. Quiet to active levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be quiet to unsettled on 30 and 31 January. Conditions are 
expected to become disturbed on 01 February with active and possible 
isolated minor storm conditions due to a recurrent coronal hole 
wind stream.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: On UT day 29 January, MUFs were near predicted monthly 
values, with periods of depressions in the southern hemisphere. 
Mostly normal conditions are expected 30 January to 01 February.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Jan    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 29 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mildly depressed in the first half of the 24 hours, then 
near predicted monthly levels. Sporadic E was observed, strong 
at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values on 30 January to 01 February. Sporadic 
E occurrences are likely.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   162000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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