[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 11 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Feb             12 Feb             13 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 February, although 
there was one B5.7 flare that peaked at 1206UT. The visible solar 
disk is spotless with no NOAA numbered active regions. A small 
unipolar sunspot group developed from a plage region in the south 
eastern quadrant and produced the B class flare. There was also 
a weak CME which may be associated with the B5.7 flare. The CME 
does not seem to be earthward directed, but further analysis 
is required. Solar activity is expected to be very low over the 
next three UT days, 11-13 February. On 10 February, the solar 
wind speed declined from 450 km/s down to 330 km/s, as the Earth 
exits the HSS from coronal holes 23 & 24. The peak total IMF 
(Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+4/-3 nT. The three day outlook (11-13 February) is for the solar 
wind speed to remain at nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21111001
      Cocos Island         1   10111000
      Darwin               2   21111001
      Townsville           4   21221111
      Learmonth            3   21121001
      Alice Springs        2   21111001
      Gingin               1   11110001
      Canberra             1   11111000
      Hobart               2   11221000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   00121000
      Casey               14   34532110
      Mawson               5   32221110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1122 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Feb     5    Quiet
12 Feb     5    Quiet
13 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 10 February. Geomagnetic conditions in the Antarctic 
region were mostly quiet to unsettled with one active and one 
minor storm level period recorded at one station. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 11-13 February.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
some periods of minor to mild enhancements during UT day 10 February. 
For the next three UT days, 11-13 February, MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Feb    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with some periods of minor to mild enhancements 
in the Northern regions during UT day 10 February. Sporadic E 
layers were observed, strong at times. For the next three UT 
days, 11-13 February, MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values as the geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease 
to quiet levels and ionising flux is low.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:   168000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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