[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 09 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 10 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 February. The
visible solar disk is spotless with no numbered regions. Solar
activity is expected to be very low over the next three UT days,
10-12 February. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
satellite images. On 09 February, the solar wind speed remained
elevated between 420 km/s and 518 km/s due to small equatorial
coronal holes. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5/-6 nT. The three day outlook
(10-12 February) is for the solar wind speed to decline from
moderately enhanced levels down to nominal levels due to the
waning effect of equatorial coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21220100
Cocos Island 2 21110000
Darwin 3 21220101
Townsville 4 22220111
Learmonth 2 21210100
Alice Springs 3 21220100
Gingin 2 21210100
Canberra 3 21220000
Hobart 3 22220100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 11230000
Casey 18 45532101
Mawson 9 43322100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1112 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 5 Quiet
12 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09 February. Geomagnetic conditions in the Antarctic
region were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels with two periods
of minor storm levels recorded on one station. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT day
10 February. On UT days 11-12 February, geomagnetic activity
is expected to decline to mostly quiet levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
some minor to mild depressions during UT day 09 February. For
the next three UT days, 10-12 February, MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values with some possible mild depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values with some minor depressions during UT day 09 February.
Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times. For the next
three UT days, 10-12 February, MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values with some possible mild depressions, in response
to the predicted decrease in geomagnetic activity and very low
levels of solar ionising flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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