[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 December 21 issued 2345 UT on 19 Dec 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 20 10:45:57 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Dec             21 Dec             22 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             114/65

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low for 19Dec with the only 
notable activity being a C3.7 flare at 2112UT from region 2907. 
No significant Earth directed CMEs were observed in available 
imagery over the last 24 hours and analysis of 18Dec long duration 
C-flare showed it to be heading south-east with no earth directed 
component. There are currently 6 numbered regions on the visible 
solar disk with no significant increase in their sunspot size 
or magnetic complexity over the last 24 hours. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +3nT and -4 nT from 
00UT-12UT. From 12UT onwards Bt began to increase in magnitude 
and Bz has been southward between 15UT-21UT reaching -18nT. The 
solar wind speed was at ambient background levels for the first 
half of the UT day, beginning at ~350km/s at 00UT. A weak shock 
was observed in the solar wind at 1210UT and the speed began 
to increase steadily to be 493km/s at the time of this report. 
This increase is likely due to the effects of a small negative 
polarity southern hemisphere located coronal hole high speed 
solar wind stream. Solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly 
elevated over the next 2-3 days due to the influence of larger 
negative polarity equatorial located coronal hole that crossed 
the central meridian yesterday. Solar activity is expected to 
be Low to Moderate over the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   11013445
      Cocos Island        12   01112444
      Darwin              15   11013445
      Townsville          15   11013445
      Learmonth           21   11113555
      Alice Springs       15   10013445
      Gingin              14   10012445
      Canberra            14   01012445
      Hobart              15   11112445    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    13   00011454
      Casey               18   33332335
      Mawson              18   22113355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0001 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Dec    12    Unsettled
21 Dec    18    Active
22 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region Quiet 
for for first half of the UT day 19Dec until an increase in solar 
wind parameters saw Active to Minor Storm conditions. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be Unsettled for 20Dec with an increase 
in activity to Active conditions possible for 21Dec-22Dec due 
to further coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly Normal HF conditions observed for 19Dec across 
all latitudes. HF conditions expected to range from near predicted 
monthly values to depressed over the next 3 days due to increased 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Dec    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      33
Jan      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Dec    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
21 Dec    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
22 Dec    20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region for 19Dec ranged from 
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced by 15-30% 
over all regions. MUFs slightly depressed after local dawn for 
southern AUS/NZ regions due to increased geomagnetic activity 
over the local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions with possible 
depressions of 10%-30% for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed 
conditions for Antarctic regions for the next 3 due to expected 
increase in geomagnetic activity over this period. Chance of 
short-wave fadeouts 20Dec-22Dec.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    47700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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