[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 December 21 issued 2346 UT on 18 Dec 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 19 10:46:57 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 122/75 123/76 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low for 18Dec with the only
notable activity being a long duration C6.3 flare at 1801UT.
No further flaring from yesterdays active region Region 2911
(N20E45). No significant Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available imagery over the last 24 hours. There are currently
6 numbered regions on the visible solar disk with no significant
increase in their sunspot size or magnetic complexity over the
last 24 hours. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
between +3nT and -4 nT. The solar wind speed has remained near
ambient background levels ranging between 326km/s to 371km/s
and is currently 348km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind
speed is expected to be at ambient levels for the next 2 days
with the chance of a slight increase due to a small negative
polarity southern hemisphere located coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream. A larger negative polarity equatorial located
coronal hole is visible in SDO/AIA193 imagery is currently at
the central meridian is expected to enhance solar wind speeds
from 21Dec onwards. Further analysis of 18Dec long duration C
flare will follow once relevant imagery becomes available. Solar
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Cocos Island 1 10100111
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 4 21111122
Learmonth 3 10111122
Alice Springs 3 11111112
Gingin 4 20111122
Canberra 3 11111112
Hobart 5 11222112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 00121111
Casey 11 33332222
Mawson 10 23112243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 6 Quiet
20 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region were
mostly Quiet for 18Dec. Quiet to Unsettled with an isolated Active
period for Antarctic regions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly Quiet for the 2 days with possible unsettled periods.
Unsettled to Active conditions expected for 21Dec due to Coronal
Hole effects on the solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly Normal HF conditions observed for 18Dec across
all latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 19Dec-20Dec.
Degraded conditions possible on 21Dec for high to mid latitudes
due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity. There is a
chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on 18 December ranged
from near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced by 15-30%
for all regions apart from Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
with possible enhanced conditions for Equatorial to Southern
AUS/NZ regions for the next 24-48 hours. Depressed MUFs possible
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions 21Dec due to expected increase in geomagnetic
activity. Chance of short-wave fadeouts 19Dec-21Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 72800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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