[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 12 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 13 10:31:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: On UT day 12 December, solar activity was very low,
with one weak C-class flare and few B-class flares. There are
currently two numbered regions on the visible solar disc; AR2904
and AR2905. AR2905 (S12E48) has recently emerged on the visible
solar disk and is the main source of flaring during the last
24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be very low on UT days
13-15 December, with a chance of more C-class flares. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
On UT day 12 December, the solar wind speed was near its nominal
level and ranged from 300 to 330 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt)
was mostly steady near 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range
was +3/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near
its nominal levels for the next three UT days (13-15 December),
with mild enhancements possible due to patchy coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11000221
Cocos Island 1 00010120
Darwin 3 11001221
Townsville 3 11001221
Learmonth 5 21011321
Alice Springs 2 01000211
Gingin 2 11000221
Canberra 2 01000220
Hobart 2 01000221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 01000200
Casey 8 23321222
Mawson 7 23111232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2310 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 5 Quiet
14 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 12 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian regions were quiet. Quiet to unsettled levels were
observed in the Antarctic regions. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mainly quiet for the next three UT days (13 -
15 December), with unsettled conditions possible on all three
days due to patchy coronal hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal and occasional fair HF conditions are
expected during 13-15 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 12 December
were variable ranging from 30% depressed at times to near predicted
monthly values, possibly due to low levels of ionising solar
flux. Similar conditions are expected during 13-15 December.
Strong sporadic E were observed at some sites.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 11.4 p/cc Temp: 38500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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