[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 December 21 issued 2332 UT on 06 Dec 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 7 10:32:27 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: On UT day 06 December, solar activity was low, due to
two C1 flares from AR2902 on the northwest solar limb. There
is currently one minor spotted region on the solar disk AR2904
(S28E31). Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on
UT days 07 to 09 December. Two solar filaments have recently
disappeared from the southern solar hemisphere, the first of
these was associated with a faint mostly southward directed CME.
Further analysis will be conducted on these events, but at this
stage they are not expected to be significantly geoeffective.
On UT day 06 December, the solar wind speed range was 428 km/s
to 522 km/s, the peak total IMF (Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +5/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be remain moderately elevated over 7-9 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 12212221
Cocos Island 4 11112310
Darwin 5 22112211
Townsville 5 11212221
Learmonth 6 21212321
Alice Springs 4 11112211
Gingin 6 -2112321
Canberra 5 12212221
Hobart 5 12212211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 12222321
Casey 21 45433332
Mawson 24 33333643
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 7 Quiet
08 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 06 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to storm levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 07-09 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions expected over 07-09
December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 7 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 7 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 7 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 06 December
were generally near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed.
Mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values expected during
the interval 07-09 December in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 9.0 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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