[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 05 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 6 10:31:21 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0719UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: On UT day 05 December, solar activity was moderate.
Several C-class and one M1.4 flare were observed from region
2898. This region is behind the limb now and can produce C-class
flares with a small possibility of isolated M-class flare on
UT day 06 December. At 05/21:45UT, there are four numbered sunspot
groups visible from the Earth side. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low on UT days 06 to 08 December with the possibility
of C-class flares on these days and small possibility of isolated
M-class activity on UT day 06 December. A filament has disappeared
from the south, extending from E20 to W30. There seems to be
a very faint CME associated with the filament disappearance.
Further analysis will be done about its possibility to be geoeffective.
On UT day 05 December, the solar wind speed range was 410 km/s
to 490 km/s, the peak total IMF (Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +4/-5 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected
to be moderately disturbed on 06 December due to continuing coronal
hole effects and then gradually return to normal values through
UT day 07 December and stay close to normal values on 08 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 11022322
Cocos Island 3 11012220
Darwin 6 11112322
Townsville 6 11022322
Learmonth 6 21022322
Alice Springs 6 11022322
Gingin - --------
Canberra 5 11022222
Hobart 6 11122322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 02032231
Casey 16 35322332
Mawson 19 33222544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3230 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 10 Quiet to unsettled
07 Dec 7 Quiet with isolated unsettled periods
08 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 05 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active conditions
with one storm level period were observed in the Antarctic region.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
on 06 December, quiet with the possibility of isolated unsettled
periods on 07 December and predominantly quiet on 08 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly values to moderate depressions
are expected on UT day 06 December. Mostly normal HF conditions,
with the possibility of minor MUF depression periods, may be
expected on UT day 07 December and mostly normal condition on
08 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 15 Near Depressed 30%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 18 Near Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 05 December
were generally near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed.
Some periods of minor enhancements were also observed. An M-class
flare also resulted in a shortwave fadeout event between Australian
and African regions. Near predicted monthly values to moderate
depressions are expected on 06 December in the Australian region.
Mostly normal HF conditions, with the possibility of minor MUF
depression periods, may be expected in the region on 07 December
and mostly normal condition on 08 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 185000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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