[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 03 Dec 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 4 10:31:02 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Dec             05 Dec             06 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: On UT day 03 December, solar activity was very low. 
At 03/22:55UT, there are three visible sunspot groups, AR2898 
(S24W86), AR2902 (N19W44) and AR2901 (N16W01). Solar activity 
is expected to be very low on UT days 04 to 06 December with 
the possibility of C-class flares. A filament erupted from the 
North-West between 0800 and 0900 UT/03 December. The resulting 
CME is very faint and difficult to model. There is only a small 
possibility that it may have a geoeffective component. On UT 
day 03 December, the solar wind speed range was 420 km/s to 470 
km/s, the peak total IMF (Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF 
(Bz) range was +5/-7 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected 
to be moderately disturbed from 04 to 06 December due to a coronal 
hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11032221
      Cocos Island         6   11022331
      Darwin               6   11132221
      Townsville           6   11132222
      Learmonth            8   11032332
      Alice Springs        5   01032221
      Gingin               8   1103233-
      Canberra             5   11132220
      Hobart               5   01032221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    16   00054521
      Casey               17   34432333
      Mawson              24   23234463

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart              52   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2131 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Dec    15    Quiet to active
05 Dec    15    Quiet to active
06 Dec    15    Quiet to active

COMMENT: On UT day 03 December, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to storm levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be initially quiet to active for the next three 
UT days, 04 to 06 December due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
05 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
06 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal to fair 04-06 
December with near predicted monthly values to moderate depressions 
at times.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Dec     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      33
Jan      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Dec     5    Depressed 30%/near predicted monthly values
05 Dec     5    Depressed 30%/near predicted monthly values
06 Dec     5    Near Depressed 30%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 03 December 
were generally mildly to moderately depressed. Near predicted 
monthly values to moderate depressions are expected 04-06 December.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:   267000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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