[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 02 Dec 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 3 10:31:05 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Dec             04 Dec             05 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              84/26              84/26

COMMENT: On UT day 02 December, solar activity was very low. 
There are two visible sunspot groups, AR2898 (S24W73, Hsx/alpha) 
which is stable and AR2902 (N19W31, Dai/beta) which has decayed. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low on UT days 03 to 05 
December. A filament erupted from the vicinity of S30W40 around 
01/1948 UT causing a weak, narrow CME directed to the west and 
analysed as not being geoeffective. On UT day 02 December, the 
solar wind speed range was 447 km/s to 539 km/s, the peak total 
IMF (Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-5 
nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to be moderately disturbed 
on 03 December due to a coronal hole wind stream and the expected 
impact from the 29 November CME. Elevated wind speed is expected 
on 04 December. From late on 04 December or early 05 December, 
another coronal hole wind stream is expected to disturb wind 
parameters.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12222222
      Cocos Island         4   11211211
      Darwin               6   12222222
      Townsville           6   12222222
      Learmonth            7   22222222
      Alice Springs        6   12222222
      Gingin               7   22222222
      Canberra             6   12212222
      Hobart               7   12322222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     9   22323312
      Casey               21   55432322
      Mawson              28   33433356

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   4442 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Dec    20    Quiet to Minor Storm
04 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of Active periods 
                later.
05 Dec    16    Quiet to Active with a chance of a Minor Storm 
                period

COMMENT: On UT day 02 December, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to storm levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be initially quiet on 03 December increasing to unsettled 
to minor storm periods due to the expected arrival of a coronal 
hole wind stream and a CME impact. Conditions should settle on 
04 December but activity is expected to increase either late 
on 04 December or early 05 December as another coronal hole wind 
stream influences conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Conditions should be normal to fair 03-05 December with 
near predicted monthly values to moderate depressions at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Dec    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      33
Jan      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Dec    10    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Dec     5    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Dec     5    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 02 December 
were generally mildly to moderately depressed with stronger depressions 
in the west of the region. Spread F was observed at Hobart and 
Perth during night time. Sporadic E was observed at Darwin 06-10 
UT. Near predicted monthly values to moderate depressions are 
expected 03-05 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 507 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:   244000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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