[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 02 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 3 10:31:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: On UT day 02 December, solar activity was very low.
There are two visible sunspot groups, AR2898 (S24W73, Hsx/alpha)
which is stable and AR2902 (N19W31, Dai/beta) which has decayed.
Solar activity is expected to be very low on UT days 03 to 05
December. A filament erupted from the vicinity of S30W40 around
01/1948 UT causing a weak, narrow CME directed to the west and
analysed as not being geoeffective. On UT day 02 December, the
solar wind speed range was 447 km/s to 539 km/s, the peak total
IMF (Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-5
nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to be moderately disturbed
on 03 December due to a coronal hole wind stream and the expected
impact from the 29 November CME. Elevated wind speed is expected
on 04 December. From late on 04 December or early 05 December,
another coronal hole wind stream is expected to disturb wind
parameters.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 12222222
Cocos Island 4 11211211
Darwin 6 12222222
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 7 22222222
Alice Springs 6 12222222
Gingin 7 22222222
Canberra 6 12212222
Hobart 7 12322222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 9 22323312
Casey 21 55432322
Mawson 28 33433356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 4442 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 20 Quiet to Minor Storm
04 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of Active periods
later.
05 Dec 16 Quiet to Active with a chance of a Minor Storm
period
COMMENT: On UT day 02 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to storm levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be initially quiet on 03 December increasing to unsettled
to minor storm periods due to the expected arrival of a coronal
hole wind stream and a CME impact. Conditions should settle on
04 December but activity is expected to increase either late
on 04 December or early 05 December as another coronal hole wind
stream influences conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Conditions should be normal to fair 03-05 December with
near predicted monthly values to moderate depressions at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 10 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 5 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 5 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 02 December
were generally mildly to moderately depressed with stronger depressions
in the west of the region. Spread F was observed at Hobart and
Perth during night time. Sporadic E was observed at Darwin 06-10
UT. Near predicted monthly values to moderate depressions are
expected 03-05 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 244000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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