[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 August 21 issued 0006 UT on 27 Aug 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 27 10:06:57 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 26 August. A long duration
C3 flare was observed from the region 2859 at 26/1818 UT. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2859
(N19E08/23:05UT/26August, Cso-beta), AR 2860 (S28E17/23:05UT/26
August, Dai beta) and a new region 2861 (N15E57/23:05/26 August).
The previously reported CME, from the eruption of a large filament
in the northeast quadrant during late hours on 22 August and
another one observed around mid-day on 24 August, have some chance
of giving weak glancing blows on 27 August. None of the other
CMEs that were previously reported, seem to have geoeffective
components. A prominence lifted off around 25/1800UTC in the
south-eastern quadrant (AIA 304 images), a possible filament
eruption from near AR2859 from north-east quadrant during early
hours of UT day 26 August (AIA 171 imagery) and a filament eruption
happened in the south-western quadrant around 26/0600UTC (AIA304
imagery). The C3 flare from 2859 at 26/1818 UT, has also released
a CME (SDO aia_304 from 18:08; GONG Halpha BigBear from 26/17:53).
All these events will be analysed further but from the location
of the C3 flare and subsequent Stereo A images, the CME associated
with this flare is likely to be geoeffective. On UT day 26 August,
the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 410 to 370
km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 and 5 nT and the IMF
north-south component (Bz) varied in the range +3/-4 nT while
staying southwards during most parts of the UT day. The solar
wind speed is expected to stay at slightly to moderately enhanced
levels during UT days 27 August and 28 August due to coronal
hole effect and possible weak effects of two CMEs. Solar wind
is expected to return to the background levels on 29 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11121011
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 2 11121001
Townsville 4 11131011
Learmonth 3 11121011
Alice Springs 2 11121001
Gingin 2 11120010
Canberra 2 01120010
Hobart 3 11130010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00140000
Casey 6 23222012
Mawson 23 34322264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3442 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 15 Quiet to active
28 Aug 10 Quiet to active
29 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 26 August and
is current for 26-27 Aug. Geomagnetic conditions were predominantly
quiet in the Australian region and predominantly quiet with one
active and one minor storm periods in the Antarctic region on
UT day 26 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet to active on UT days 27 and 28 August, with the possibility
of isolated minor storm periods if the two CMEs observed on 22
and 24 August, do give glancing blow(s). Quiet to unsettle conditions
may be expected for 29 August, pending analysis of further CME
activities that happened during the last 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs on UT days 27 to 28 August are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values with the possibility of minor to
mild MUF depressions due to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity levels. Mostly normal MUFs may be expected on 28 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 16 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 22 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 26 August were
near predicted monthly values, with some mild MUF depressions
in the Northern Australian. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT days 27 and 28 August are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions
due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity levels.
Mostly normal MUFs may expected on 29 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 188000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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