[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 12 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 August. Two
new regions; AR 2854(S22W34) and AR 2855(N12E61) have emerged
over the period. Both regions are small and magnetically simple.
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 12-14 August. No
Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph
images. On 11 August, the solar wind speed remained slightly
enhanced under the influence of weak coronal hole but gradually
declining, currently around 430 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked
at 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +4/-
6nT, currently neutral. The solar wind speed is expected to be
mostly near background to slightly enhanced levels on UT days
12-14 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 22211000
Cocos Island 2 12211000
Darwin 3 22211001
Townsville 3 22211001
Learmonth 4 23211000
Alice Springs 2 12201000
Gingin 3 22211000
Canberra 3 22211000
Hobart 3 22211000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 11121000
Casey 6 33221010
Mawson 12 44321032
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2311 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 7 Mostly quiet
13 Aug 5 Quiet
14 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet on UT day 11 August. Active periods observed in
the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on 12-14 August with a chance of isolated
unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 12-14 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 11 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions
observed at Cocos Island region local night. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 12-14 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 88200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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