[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 12 09:30:06 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11               74/11               74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 August. Two 
new regions; AR 2854(S22W34) and AR 2855(N12E61) have emerged 
over the period. Both regions are small and magnetically simple. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 12-14 August. No 
Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph 
images. On 11 August, the solar wind speed remained slightly 
enhanced under the influence of weak coronal hole but gradually 
declining, currently around 430 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked 
at 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +4/- 
6nT, currently neutral. The solar wind speed is expected to be 
mostly near background to slightly enhanced levels on UT days 
12-14 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22211000
      Cocos Island         2   12211000
      Darwin               3   22211001
      Townsville           3   22211001
      Learmonth            4   23211000
      Alice Springs        2   12201000
      Gingin               3   22211000
      Canberra             3   22211000
      Hobart               3   22211000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   11121000
      Casey                6   33221010
      Mawson              12   44321032

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   2311 3122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug     7    Mostly quiet
13 Aug     5    Quiet
14 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
mostly quiet on UT day 11 August. Active periods observed in 
the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet on 12-14 August with a chance of isolated 
unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 12-14 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Aug    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 11 August were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions 
observed at Cocos Island region local night. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on UT days 12-14 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    88200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list