[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 10 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 11 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 August. The
Solar disk is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected
to be very low on 11-13 August. A narrow CME observed in LASCO
imagery around 09/19UT. This CME appears to be from the far side
of the Sun and is unlikely to be geoeffective. No other Earth
directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph
images. On 10 August. The solar wind parameters remained slightly
enhanced under the influence of HSS associated with a small coronal
hole. The solar wind speed showed a slow increasing trend from
from 350 Km/s to 460 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 9 nT
and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +7/- 6nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near background to
slightly enhanced levels on UT days 11-13 August due to weak
coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Cocos Island 3 12112011
Darwin 6 23212111
Townsville 6 23222111
Learmonth 7 23213111
Alice Springs 4 12112111
Gingin 4 12103111
Canberra 4 22112101
Hobart 4 12113101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 11003100
Casey 7 23322111
Mawson 12 43222204
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1121 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 5 Quiet
13 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 10 August. Isolated active periods
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on 11-13 August. There is a chance
of isolated unsettled periods on 11 August due to weak coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 11-13 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 10 August were
near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed. MUFs in
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT days 11-13 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 13.6 p/cc Temp: 36600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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