[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 03 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 4 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 03 August. Currently
there is one numbered region on the visible solar disk, AR2850
located at S32W40. Solar activity is expected to be very low
for 04-06 August. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
coronagraph images during the last 24 hours. On UT day 03 August,
the solar wind speed range was 320-390 km/s. The IMF Bt component
was mostly steady near 7 nT. The IMF Bz range was +7/-6 nT, and
was weakly southward throughout the UT day. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near its background levels on UT day 04-05
August. From UT day 06 August, the solar wind speed is expected
to enhance in response to the arrival of high-speed streams (HSS)
from a Northern Polar coronal hole with extension into the low
latitude regions. Mild enhancement in solar wind speed is also
possible on UT day 05 August due to small patchy equatorial coronal
hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 32222101
Cocos Island 3 21121100
Darwin 5 32112101
Townsville 6 32222101
Learmonth 6 22222211
Alice Springs 4 22222100
Gingin 6 32122211
Canberra 6 32132100
Hobart 5 22232100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 22443100
Casey 7 33222111
Mawson 26 43423346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 2102 3554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 7 Quiet
05 Aug 7 Quiet
06 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at quiet to unsettled levels on UT day 03 August. The Antarctic
region observed quiet to active conditions on this day. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on UT
days 04-05 August, with a chance of isolated unsettled periods.
On UT day 06 August, geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
unsettled to active with a chance of minor storms. The forecasted
disturbed conditions are due to possible arrival of corotating
interaction region and subsequent high speed streams associated
with the Northern Polar coronal hole with extension into low
latitude regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 04-05 August. Some degraded propagation conditions
are possible on UT day 06 August due to forecasted disturbed
conditions
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 03 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 04 to 06 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 11.4 p/cc Temp: 58700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list