[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 August 21 issued 2332 UT on 02 Aug 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 3 09:32:41 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 August. Currently
there is one numbered region on the visible solar disk, AR22850
located at S32W28. Solar activity is expected to be very low
for 03-05 August. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
coronagraph images during the last 24 hours. On UT day 02 August,
the solar wind speed was mostly steady, near mildly elevated
levels. The solar wind speed range was 370-410 km/s. The IMF
Bt component increased gradually and peaked to 13 nT at 02/1900
UT. The IMF Bz range was +2/-12 nT, with a significant southward
component between 02/1400 UT and 02/1900 UT. This observed feature
in the IMF condition appears to be a recurrent. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near mildly elevated levels today
03 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 01112453
Cocos Island 10 11112442
Darwin 11 02122443
Townsville 11 11022443
Learmonth 14 00123543
Alice Springs 15 01112553
Gingin 13 00013453
Canberra 12 10012453
Hobart 15 00012553
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 16 00023553
Casey 13 11113353
Mawson 29 41113374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2100 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 7 Quiet
04 Aug 7 Quiet
05 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were between quiet to storm levels on UT day 02 August.
The disturbed conditions were in response to the prolonged IMF
Bz conditions. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be mostly quiet on UT days 03-05 August, with a chance of isolated
unsettled periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 03-05 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 2 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values; mild depressions were observed
near Cocos Island region during local night. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 03 to 05 August, with some mild degradations today
(UT day 03 August) due to the recent geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 74800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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