[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 29 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 30 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 75/13 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 29 April. There
are currently three spotted regions on the visible disk, ARs
2818, 2820 and 2821. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected
to be very low with a chance of a C-class flare for the next
three UT days, 30 April to 2 May. On UT day 29 April, the solar
wind speed remained near background levels between 325 km/s and
360 km/s. The IMF (Bt) ranged from 2 nT to 9 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +5/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be at background levels initially on UT day 30 April. However,
equatorial coronal holes moving into geoeffective position are
expected to elevate the solar wind speed to slightly enhanced
levels late on UT day 30 April through UT days 1-2 May. Also
if the weak 26 April CME from a filament eruption arrives at
Earth on UT day 1 May, it could further increase the solar wind
speed to moderately enhanced levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 00111010
Cocos Island 1 10110110
Darwin 2 10111011
Townsville 3 11121011
Learmonth 2 00121010
Alice Springs 1 00111011
Gingin 2 00012110
Canberra 2 01121000
Hobart 1 01111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00122000
Casey 4 22212110
Mawson 6 23112212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 10 Initially quiet then unsettled with possible
active periods towards the end of the UT day.
01 May 15 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
02 May 8 Initially unsettled then quiet for the rest of
the day.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at quiet levels on UT day 29 April. Mostly quiet levels with
one unsettled period were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet
to unsettled conditions with possible active periods are expected
on UT days 30 April - 2 May as equatorial coronal holes moves
into geoeffective position. The weak CME on 26 April could impact
Earth on UT day 1 May, increasing the disturbance levels from
unsettled to active.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT day 30 April. Some mild to moderate degradation in HF propagation
conditions at high latitudes may occur on UT days 1-2 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 April were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Northern Australian region during local night. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day
30 April. Some mild to moderate MUF depressions are possible
on UT days 1-2 May due to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 67500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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