[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 28 Apr 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 29 09:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Apr             30 Apr             01 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 28 April with 
just a few B-class flares. There are currently two spotted regions 
on the visible disk, ARs 2820 and 2821. No Earth directed CMEs 
were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low for the next three UT days, 29 April 
to 1 May, with a chance of a C-class flare. On UT day 28 April, 
the solar wind speed followed a decreasing trend from 430 km/s 
down to 330 km/s, because of waning coronal hole and CME effects. 
The IMF (Bt) peaked at 3 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range 
was +/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay at background 
levels on UT day 29 April. However, on UT day 30 April another 
equatorial coronal hole moving into geoeffective position is 
expected to elevate the solar wind speed to slightly enhanced 
levels. Also if the weak 26 April CME from a filament eruption 
arrives at Earth on UT day 1 May, it could further increase the 
solar wind speed to moderately enhanced levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10001001
      Cocos Island         0   10000000
      Darwin               2   22000002
      Townsville           2   11111002
      Learmonth            0   10001000
      Alice Springs        0   10000001
      Gingin               0   1000100-
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               1   10011001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                4   23212000
      Mawson              13   32111045

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   3322 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Apr     7    Quiet
30 Apr    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active 
                periods
01 May    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
at quiet levels on UT day 28 April. Quiet to unsettled levels 
with one active to storm period were observed in the Antarctic 
region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on UT day 29 April. 
Then mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with possible active 
periods are expected on UT day 30 April as an equatorial coronal 
hole moves into geoeffective position. The weak CME on 26 April 
could impact Earth on UT day 1 May, increasing the disturbance 
levels from unsettled to active.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 29-30 April. Some mild to moderate degradation in 
HF propagation conditions at high latitudes may occur on UT day 
1 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      9
Apr      19
May      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values
01 May    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 28 April were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions 
in the Northern Australian region during local night. MUFs are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 
29 April to 1 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 478 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   188000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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