[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 28 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 29 10:31:34 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Oct             30 Oct             31 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 28 October. There are 
currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR2778 and 
AR2779; the former has produced several C-class flares, the biggest 
flare, C4.3, occurred on 27 October. No earthbound CMEs were 
observed in the available imagery. Solar activity is expected 
to stay low for the next three UT days, 29-31 October. On UT 
day 28 October, the solar wind continued to be enhanced due to 
the influence of a north polar coronal hole extension. The solar 
wind speed range was mostly 480-520 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) 
varied in the range 2-6 nT, and the north-south component of 
the IMF (Bz) was predominantly negative, varying between -5/+5 
nT. The enhanced solar wind speed is expected to continue on 
UT day 29 October, gradually returning to its nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12123331
      Cocos Island         6   12112231
      Darwin               7   12123231
      Townsville           9   22123331
      Learmonth            9   12123332
      Alice Springs        9   --223231
      Gingin               8   12123331
      Canberra             8   12123331
      Hobart               8   12123331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    16   12144531
      Casey               17   43433241
      Mawson              36   34333573

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        5   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2233 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct     7    Quiet
31 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 28 October, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Australian region. Mostly quiet 
to active levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled 
with possible isolated active periods during the next UT day, 
29 October; then mostly quiet conditions with possible unsettled 
periods are expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
during the next three UT days, 29-31 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Oct   -31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Oct   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
30 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 28 October, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values during local night 
and mildly depressed during local day. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be near predicted monthly to mildly depressed 
levels during UT days 29-31 October; the mild depressions are 
expected due to recent geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 510 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:   381000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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