[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 28 10:31:34 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Oct             29 Oct             30 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity has reached low levels on UT day 27 October. 
There is currently one numbered region on the visible disk, AR2778 
(S20W28), it has produced three C-class flares, the biggest flare 
was C4.3. No earthbound CMEs were observed in the available imagery. 
Solar activity is expected to stay very low to low for the next 
three UT days, 28-30 October. On UT day 27 October, the solar 
wind continued to be enhanced due to the influence of a north 
polar coronal hole extension. The solar wind speed range was 
mostly 500-560 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3-5 
nT, and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between 
-3/+3 nT. The enhanced solar wind speed is expected to continue 
on UT days 28-29 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21320022
      Cocos Island         2   10210010
      Darwin               4   21310011
      Townsville           6   21320122
      Learmonth            5   21310122
      Gingin               6   21320032
      Canberra             5   22320012
      Hobart               5   22320012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     5   11330011
      Casey               13   34431122
      Mawson              21   32432155

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs      127   (Severe storm)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             13   2433 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct     7    Quiet
30 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 27 October, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Australian region. Mostly quiet 
to active levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled 
with possible isolated active periods during the next UT day, 
28 October; then mostly quiet conditions with possible unsettled 
periods are expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
during the next UT day, 28 October. Moderately depressed MUFs 
are likely in the Southern Hemisphere due to recent increase 
in geomagnetic activity. Then mostly normal HF propagation conditions 
are expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Oct   -37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Oct   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
29 Oct   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
30 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: On UT day 27 October, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values during local night 
and moderately depressed during local day. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be near predicted monthly to moderately 
depressed levels during UT days 28-30 October; the moderate depressions 
are expected due to recent geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7e+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5e+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70e+08
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 556 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   318000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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