[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 October 20 issued 2332 UT on 22 Oct 2020

Fri Oct 23 10:32:09 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low on UT day 22 October 
and expected to stay very low for the next 3 UT days (23 to 25 
October) with a small possibility of C-class flares. No earthbound 
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed ranged between 
330 km/s and 390 km/s, currently near 370 km/s. For the total 
IMF (Bt) and its north-south component (Bz) the ranges were 4-8 
nT and +6/-3 nT, respectively. The solar wind is expected to 
strengthen from today (UT 23 October) as a large polar Northern 
coronal hole with equatorward extension is expected to reach 
a geoeffective location on the solar disk. The solar wind is 
expected to remain at elevated levels on UT days 24 and 25 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21001112
      Cocos Island         2   22000111
      Darwin               3   21011112
      Townsville           4   22012112
      Alice Springs        3   22001102
      Gingin               4   21002122
      Canberra             2   21001102
      Hobart               2   21001102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     1   11001101
      Casey                7   33211112
      Mawson              28   52101166

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1132 1112    

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active
24 Oct    12    Unsettled
25 Oct    20    Active

COMMENT: On UT day 22 October, mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Australian regions. Quiet to minor storm 
periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled to active for 
the next three UT days (23 to 25 October) with some possibility 
of isolated minor storm periods, due to coronal hole effect. 
Aurora may be visible over the next three UT days from Tasmania 
and Southern parts of Victoria.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
for 23-25 October.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Oct   -21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available .
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct   -15    Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct   -15    Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to moderately depressed levels 
on UT day 22 October. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be near predicted monthly to moderately depressed levels during 
UT days 23 to 25 October in response to the forecasted magnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3e+05 
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5e+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:    62200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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