[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 21 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 22 10:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low on UT day 21 October
and expected to stay very low for the next 3 UT days (22 to 24
October) with a small possibility of C-class activity. No earthbound
CMEs have been observed. Solar wind data could not become available
on UT day 21 October from around 00:55 UT to 7:15 UT. As per
the available data for UT day 21 October the solar wind speed
varied between 330 km/s and 400 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) from
2 nT to 10 nT, IMF Bz varied in the range +5/-4 nT and solar
wind particle density varied between 4 and 17 ppcc. The effect
of a coronal hole is expected to strengthen the solar wind parameters
for the next three UT days (22 to 24 October).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21321111
Cocos Island 3 21310100
Darwin 5 21321111
Townsville 7 21332111
Alice Springs 5 12321101
Gingin 4 10322011
Canberra 7 22332011
Hobart 7 12342001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
Macquarie Island 12 02354000
Casey 18 35532122
Mawson 14 53322231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2110 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 18 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible
23 Oct 18 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible
24 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 21 October, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian regions. Mostly quiet
to unsettled conditions with isolated minor storm periods were
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next three
UT days (22 to 24 October) with some possibility of isolated
minor storm periods, especially at high latitudes due to coronal
hole effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
minor to moderate enhancements on UT day 21 October. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values during UT
days 22 to 24 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
23 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct -6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values with minor to moderate enhancements
on UT day 21 October. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values during UT days 22
to 24 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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