[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 November 20 issued 2334 UT on 26 Nov 2020

Fri Nov 27 10:34:04 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 106/55

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   106/55             108/58             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 26 November with several 
high level B-class flares and three C-class flares from region 
2786(S19E41). The largest flare was a C3.8 flare at 26/1242UT. 
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk; 
2783(S22W49), 2785(S22E22) and 2786. Regions 2783 and 2785 remained 
stable and quiet while region 2786 increased rapidly in area 
and magnetic complexity, currently a beta-gamma magnetic class. 
An unstable filament in the SE quadrant is monitored for any 
eruption. No Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraphic 
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three 
UT days, 27-29 November with a chance of an M-class flare from 
region 2786. Solar wind parameters became mildly disturbed starting 
26/1245 UT likely due to the expected coronal hole effects. Solar 
wind speed has trended upwards since and peaked at 480 km/s. 
The maximum total IMF was 8 nT with a north-south IMF (Bz) range 
of +/-6 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mildly 
disturbed on 27 November and return to background levels on 28-29 
November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   10113221
      Cocos Island         5   11113211
      Darwin               4   10113211
      Townsville           6   11113222
      Learmonth            4   10013221
      Alice Springs        4   10113211
      Gingin               4   20112221
      Canberra             3   10012121
      Hobart               4   11112221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     4   11013210
      Casey               15   34433222
      Mawson              17   33224325

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   0312 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov     7    Quiet
29 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region and quiet to minor storm conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region on 26 November. quiet to 
unsettled conditions are expected today, 27 November and mostly 
quiet conditions on 28-29 November.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
during the next three UT days, 27-29 November.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Nov    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mildly depressed 
to near predicted monthly values during UT day 26 November. Sporadic 
E blanketing was observed at some sites. MUFs in the Australian 
regions are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
for the next three UT days, 27-29 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    29000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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