[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 25 Nov 2020

Thu Nov 26 10:31:40 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 104/53

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 25 November. There 
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk; 2783(S22W36), 
2785(S22E35) and 2786(S19E54). Regions 2783 and 2785 remained 
relatively stable and quiet while region 2786 showed some development 
and produced several high level B-class flares and a C3.4 flare 
at 25/0402 UT. No Earth directed CMEs observed in the available 
coronagraphic imagery. Solar activity is expected to be low for 
the next three UT days, 26-28 November with a chance of an M-class 
flare potentially from region 2786. The current solar wind speed 
is near 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 
nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range 
was mostly +3/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near 
background to mildly enhanced levels over the next three days, 
26-28 November due to weak coronal effects and possibly a weak 
CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Mostly quiet.

Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11121112
      Cocos Island         3   11111111
      Darwin               4   11121112
      Townsville           6   12131212
      Learmonth            4   11022112
      Alice Springs        3   11021112
      Gingin               6   11032222
      Canberra             5   12131111
      Hobart               6   12132211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     6   01043110
      Casey               12   43332122
      Mawson              20   34233444

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1100 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov    15    Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of isolated 
                active periods.
27 Nov    12    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in 
the Australian region and quiet to active conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region on 25 November. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected for the next three days, 26-28 November 
with a chance of isolated active periods due to weak coronal 
hole and CME effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
during the next three UT days, 26-28 November.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Nov     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values during UT day 25 November. Cocos Island region observed 
slightly enhanced MUFs. X-ray flux background is currently trending 
up. Sporadic E was observed at some sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be near predicted monthly values for the 
next three UT days, 26-28 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    37700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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