[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 20 Nov 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 21 10:31:32 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Very low to low    Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 20 November, with two 
flares, a C1.9 at 1703 UT and a C1.0 at 1845 UT from AR 2783 
(S22E30). Single spot region 2783 is classed as an Hsx/alpha 
group and plage region 2782 (S32W53) appears stable. SDO images 
indicate an active region may rotate onto the visible disc in 
a day or so. Solar activity is expected to be very low with a 
chance of C flares from AR 2783. No Earth-directed CMEs observed 
on 20 Nov. Modelling of the CME associated with the 19/0115 UT 
filament eruption was uncertain. Any impact can be expected 23-24 
Nov and should not be significant. The solar wind speed range 
was 320-400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 9 nT and the north-south 
IMF (Bz) range was +/-7 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to increase 
later today or 22 Nov due to recurrent coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22121121
      Cocos Island         4   21121121
      Darwin               4   21111121
      Townsville           5   22121121
      Learmonth            6   31121122
      Alice Springs        4   22021111
      Gingin               6   31121122
      Canberra             3   22120011
      Hobart               5   22230111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     6   22240001
      Casey               13   44222232
      Mawson              21   43233162

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0001 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of an active period.
22 Nov    12    Unsettled. Chance of an active period.
23 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region with mostly quiet to active conditions in southern high 
latitudes on UT day 20 November. Recurrent coronal hole effects 
are expected to cause mild disturbances with possible active 
conditions mostly 21 and 22 Nov. There is a slight chance weak 
CME effects may increase activity later on 23 Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair conditions 21 to 23 November.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Nov    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values
22 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 20 November. Sporadic E observed 
at Brisbane and Norfolk Is. around 09-23 UT and at times in Hobart, 
Perth, Canberra and Sydney 16-21 UT. Minor depressions possible 
at times 21-23 Nov. Sporadic E possible at times.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 309 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    25000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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