[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 19 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 20 10:31:31 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 November, with
only a few B-class flares. There are currently two numbered regions
on the visible solar disk, 2783 (S22E44) and 2782 (S32W39). Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days,
20-22 November. A disappearing solar filament from the Northeast
solar quadrant (N42E52) starting at 19/0115 UT has triggered
a CME first seen at 19/0248 UT in the available coronagraph imagery.
Based on the location and direction of the CME, it is unlikely
to impact earth. On UT day 19 November, the solar wind speed
was near its nominal levels, varying in the range 290-350 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT and 10 nT and the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was mostly +2/-6
nT. At the time of writing, solar wind conditions were perturbed
due to the possible onset of the corotating interaction region
associated with the arrival of the coronal hole effect. The solar
wind speed is expected to enhance to mildly elevated levels today
due to the approaching coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11110012
Cocos Island 0 00010001
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 2 11110021
Learmonth 2 11010002
Alice Springs 2 10010012
Gingin 2 11110012
Canberra 1 01010011
Hobart 2 11110012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00020001
Casey 6 23320012
Mawson 7 22121014
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1120 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 12 Unsettled
21 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 19 November. Today, UT day 20
Nov, mostly unsettled conditions and at times reaching active
levels are expected due to the possible arrival of the coronal
hole effects. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
for the subsequent two UT days (21 and 22 Nov)
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal and at times fair HF propagation conditions
are expected during the next three UT days, 20-22 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available .
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 19 November. Sporadic E blanketing
were observed at some sites. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be near predicted monthly values for the next three
UT days, 20-22 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 291 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 15400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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