[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 10 09:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 May. The visible
disc was spotless. No regions are expected to return. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
10-12 May. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. Through UT day 09 May, the solar wind speed
was steady, near its nominal level. The total IMF (Bt) and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 3-5 nT and
-3/+3 nT, respectively. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 10-12 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 1 10100001
Townsville 1 11000001
Learmonth 0 10000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 11200000
Mawson 2 30000010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1010 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 7 Quiet
11 May 7 Quiet
12 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day
09 May in the Australian and the Antarctic regions. Quiet conditions
are expected on UT days 10-12 May with a possibility of some
unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation are expected for the next
three UT days (10-12 May).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to moderately
enhanced levels in the Australian region during UT day 09 May.
The enhancements were mostly observed during local night. Occurrences
of sporadic E were observed over some Australian stations. Normal
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days (10-12 May) in the
Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 31800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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