[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 May 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 10 09:31:29 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 May             11 May             12 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 May. The visible 
disc was spotless. No regions are expected to return. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
10-12 May. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. Through UT day 09 May, the solar wind speed 
was steady, near its nominal level. The total IMF (Bt) and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 3-5 nT and 
-3/+3 nT, respectively. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 10-12 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000000
      Cocos Island         0   10000000
      Darwin               1   10100001
      Townsville           1   11000001
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   10000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   11200000
      Mawson               2   30000010

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1010 1002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 May     7    Quiet
11 May     7    Quiet
12 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 
09 May in the Australian and the Antarctic regions. Quiet conditions 
are expected on UT days 10-12 May with a possibility of some 
unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation are expected for the next 
three UT days (10-12 May).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 May     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
11 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
12 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to moderately 
enhanced levels in the Australian region during UT day 09 May. 
The enhancements were mostly observed during local night. Occurrences 
of sporadic E were observed over some Australian stations. Normal 
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days (10-12 May) in the 
Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    31800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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