[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 9 09:31:35 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 May. The visible
disc was spotless. No regions are expected to return. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
09-11 May. Through UT day 08 May, the solar wind speed was near
its background values, varying in the range 320-360 km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
in the ranges 3-5 nT and -4/+4 nT, respectively. The solar wind
particle density varied from 4 ppcc to 12 ppcc. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected for 09-11 May with
a possibility of mild rise late on 09 May and on 11 May due possible
coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11111000
Cocos Island 1 11001000
Darwin 1 11101000
Townsville 2 11111001
Learmonth 1 11111000
Alice Springs 1 10101000
Gingin 1 11100000
Canberra 0 01010000
Hobart 1 01111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 3 13110001
Mawson 10 22222015
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 7 Quiet
10 May 7 Quiet
11 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day
08 May. Quiet conditions are expected on UT days 09-11 May with
a possibility of some unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values. Significantly
enhanced MUFs were observed mostly in the Southern Hemisphere
during local night. Minor to moderate depressions were observed
at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and in the equatorial
regions. Occurrences of sporadic E were observed in the Australian
region. Mostly normal MUFs are expected for the next three UT
days (09-11 May).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to significantly
enhanced in the Australian region. The enhancements were mostly
observed during local night. Minor depressions were seen in the
Northern Australian region during local day. Occurrences of sporadic
E were observed. Normal MUFs are expected for the next three
UT days (09-11 May) in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 26100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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