[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 28 10:31:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 27 Mar. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible disk and no
earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next
three days, 28-30 Mar. During UT day 27 Mar, the solar wind speed
varied in the range 380-420 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic
field (Bt) stayed between 2 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component
of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) varied in the range +/-4nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near its nominal/background
levels during 28-29 Mar. On 30 Mar, the solar wind is expected
to enhance in response to high-speed streams associated with
a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet with isolated
Unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11002220
Cocos Island 3 11101220
Darwin 3 11002221
Townsville 3 11012220
Learmonth 6 22101330
Alice Springs 3 11002220
Gingin 5 21001330
Canberra 2 11001120
Hobart 5 12122220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 11021100
Casey 13 34411330
Mawson 29 53402652
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 1203
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 7 Mostly Quiet
29 Mar 7 Mostly Quiet
30 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 27 Mar was Quiet with some
isolated Unsettled periods in the Australian region. The Antarctic
region observed isolated Active and Minor Storm periods. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet for 28-29
Mar, then increase to Unsettled levels with a chance of isolated
Active periods for 30 Mar due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones across
Australian regions on 27 Mar. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values for 28-30 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 56600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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