[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 26 Mar 2020

Fri Mar 27 10:31:26 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 26 Mar. There 
are currently no numbered regions on the visible disk and no 
earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 
three days, 27-29 Mar. During UT day 26 Mar, the solar wind speed 
varied in the range 360-420 km/s, currently near 420 km/s. The 
total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) stayed between 1 nT 
and 6 nT and the north-south component of interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) varied in the range -4/+3 nT and was mostly positive. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near its nominal/background 
levels during 27-29 Mar.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112201
      Cocos Island         2   11101201
      Darwin               4   12112201
      Townsville           4   11112211
      Learmonth            2   01112200
      Alice Springs        3   11012201
      Gingin               2   01011201
      Canberra             1   01001100
      Hobart               4   01112311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   00012100
      Casey                7   23222212
      Mawson              10   22211205

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2000 1002     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar     7    Quiet
28 Mar     7    Quiet
29 Mar     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for the Australian 
region during UT day 26 Mar and mostly quiet conditions with 
isolated periods of higher activity were seen in Antarctic regions. 
For 27-29 Mar, mostly quiet global geomagnetic conditions are 
expected.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for UT day 26 Mar. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next 3 UT days, 27-29 Mar.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Mar    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -8
Mar      -15
Apr      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones across 
Australian regions on 26 Mar. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values for 27-29 Mar with possible disturbed 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    64300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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