[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 March 20 issued 2332 UT on 23 Mar 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 24 10:32:58 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Very low.
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 70/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 23 Mar. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible disk and no
earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three
days, 24-26 Mar. During UT day 23 Mar, the solar wind speed was
elevated, varying in the range 440 km/s to 520 km/s, currently
near 460 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) stayed
between 2 nT and 5 nT; and the north-south component of interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) varied in the range -5/+3 nT without significant
southward excursions. Due to coronal hole effects, the solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 24 Mar with a gradual
return to ambient/background levels for 25-26 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22233220
Cocos Island 7 1-322230
Darwin 7 22223220
Townsville 8 22233220
Learmonth 8 12323230
Alice Springs 9 22233230
Gingin 10 22233331
Canberra 4 12222110
Hobart 10 223331--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 14 12154231
Casey 18 34433432
Mawson 44 46344374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 2211 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar 7 Quiet
26 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
for the Australian region on UT day 23 Mar with Antarctic regions
experiencing mostly quiet to active conditions due to mild coronal
hole effects. Similar global geomagnetic conditions are expected
for 24 Mar and mostly quiet conditions for 25-26 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for UT day 23 Mar.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next 3 UT days, 24-26 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced ones across all regions
on 23 Mar. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values for 24-26 Mar with possible disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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