[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 22 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 23 10:31:28 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 22Mar. There are currently
no numbered regions on the visible disk and no earth-directed
CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
speed increased from 432km/s at 00UT to a maximum of 493km/s
at 0934UT and is currently 447km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
ranged between +2nT and -4nT over the UT day with no sustained
southward excursions. Solar wind parameters may be slightly enhanced
over the next 24 hours due to continued coronal hole effects
with a return to ambient/background solar wind speeds for 24Mar-25Mar.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21112221
Cocos Island 4 21111121
Darwin 4 22112110
Townsville 5 22122111
Learmonth 7 21113321
Alice Springs 4 21112220
Gingin 7 21113231
Canberra 2 11011110
Hobart 8 22123321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 11032210
Casey 13 44322222
Mawson 27 35222256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 2222 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Mar 6 Quiet
25 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity observed for the Australian
region 22Mar with Antarctic regions experiencing Unsettled to
Active conditions due to mild coronal hole effects over the last
24 hours. Similar geomagnetic conditions expected for the Australian
region over the next 24 hours with Unsettled to Active conditions
for Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet conditions for Australian
regions and Unsettled conditions for Antarctic regions 24Mar-25Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to slightly enhanced for 22Mar. MUFs expected
to be near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to minor enhancements observed across all regions
on 22Mar. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values for
23Mar-25Mar with possible disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4e+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 247000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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