[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 10 10:31:22 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 09 March. Currently
there is one numbered region on the visible disc, AR 2758 (now
at S35E18). Very low levels of solar activity are expected for
the next three UT days, 10-12 March. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 09 March,
the solar wind speed varied in the range 330-380 km, currently
near 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1 nT and 7 nT
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range
-3/+3 nT. The outlook for the next three days (10-12 March) is
for the solar wind speed to remain near its nominal. Some minor
enhancement in solar wind speed may occur during this period
due to a possible connection with the high speed stream from
an extension of the south polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21111211
Cocos Island 2 20101210
Darwin 4 21111211
Townsville 4 21112211
Learmonth 5 21112221
Alice Springs 3 11111211
Gingin 4 11101321
Canberra 1 10111100
Hobart 4 11121211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 11111100
Casey 11 33431221
Mawson 19 34322245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1220 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 7 Quiet
11 Mar 7 Quiet
12 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 09 March was mostly quiet for
the Australian region. The Antarctic sites observed quiet to
active levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be
mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT days 10-12 March,
with some short-lived unsettled periods possible due to the south
polar coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 10-12 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for the Australian
and equatorial region on 09 March. Sporadic-E occurrences were
observed over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support
are expected for the next three UT days, 10-12 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 39900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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