[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 9 10:31:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 08 March. Currently
there is one numbered region on the visible disc, AR 2758 (now
at S35E30). The region has produced several type III sweeps.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 09-11 March. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 08 March, the solar
wind speed varied in the range 330-410 km, currently near 340
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 3 nT and 6 nT and the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -4/+5
nT. The solar wind speed may reach moderately enhanced levels
at the end of 10 March due to a possible connection with the
high speed stream from an extension of the south polar coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 22000211
Cocos Island 2 12000211
Darwin 4 22100221
Townsville 4 22100221
Learmonth 3 22000212
Alice Springs 3 22000210
Gingin 4 21000321
Canberra 0 10000100
Hobart 4 21101311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 10010210
Casey 10 34321212
Mawson 14 22211345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0121 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 7 Quiet
10 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 08 March was mostly quiet for
the Australian and Antarctic regions. The Antarctic sites also
observed unsettled to minor storm levels. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for 09-10 March,
then at the end of 10 March or on 11 March it may increase to
unsettled levels with a chance of isolated active periods due
to anticipated coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 09-11 March. Mild degradation may
happen in high-latitude regions at the end of 10 March and on
11 March due to possible increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for the Australian
and equatorial region on 08 March. Mild to moderate depressions
were also seen in the equatorial region. Sporadic-E occurrences
were observed over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric
support are expected for the next three UT days, 09-11 March.
Mildly to moderately encreased MUFs are possible for 11 March
due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 46200 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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