[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 31 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 30 July. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2767(S22W44)
and 2768(N23E37). Both regions are magnetically simple and remained
stable over the period. Very Low solar activity is expected for
the next three UT days, 31 July 02 August. A CME was first observed
in LASCO images starting 29/1800UT directed to the east and not
visible in STEREO A images. It is not considered to be Earth
directed. No other Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph images. During UT day 30 July, the solar
wind speed was near its background levels, under 370 Km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) range was 2-7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) varied mainly between +/-3 nT with a brief southward excursion
up to -7 nT at 30/0400 UT. During the next two UT days, 31 July
01 August, the solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near
its background levels. Enhancements in the solar wind speed are
possible at the end of UT day 02 August due to a northern polar
extension coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11210000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 2 12210001
Learmonth 1 11200000
Alice Springs 1 11200000
Gingin 1 11100000
Canberra 1 01210000
Hobart 2 11220000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 1 12100000
Mawson 10 42321203
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1120 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 5 Quiet
01 Aug 5 Quiet
02 Aug 15 Quiet to Unsettled levels with a chance of an
isolated Active period.
COMMENT: On UT day 30 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet with some isolated unsettled to
active periods. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected on 31 July-01
August, with conditions expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels with a chance of an isolated active period on UT day 02
August due to the approaching coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 31 July 02 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were near
predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced on UT day 30 July.
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 31 July 02 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 22600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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