[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 29 Jul 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 30 09:31:26 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jul             31 Jul             01 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 29 July. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2767(S22W31) 
and 2768(N23E49). Both regions are magnetically simple and stable. 
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 
30 July 01 August. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in 
the available coronagraph images. During UT day 29 July, the 
solar wind speed was near its background levels, under 380 Km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-6 nT, and the north-south IMF 
component (Bz) range was mainly between +/-3 nT. The solar wind 
speed is expected to remain near its background levels for the 
next three UT days, 30 July 01 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11202110
      Cocos Island         1   11101010
      Darwin               3   11202011
      Townsville           4   11212111
      Learmonth            3   12202200
      Alice Springs        2   01202001
      Gingin               3   12201110
      Canberra             2   02111000
      Hobart               2   10211100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                5   23202210
      Mawson               8   52201110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   3010 1202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jul     5    Quiet
31 Jul     5    Quiet
01 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 29 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet 
in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were mostly quiet. Global geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be mostly quiet during the next three UT days, 30 
July 01 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 30 July 01 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jul     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -1
Jul      -12
Aug      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were near 
predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced on UT day 29 July. 
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
for the next three UT days, 30 July 01 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    45000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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