[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 29 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 30 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 29 July. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2767(S22W31)
and 2768(N23E49). Both regions are magnetically simple and stable.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
30 July 01 August. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph images. During UT day 29 July, the
solar wind speed was near its background levels, under 380 Km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-6 nT, and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) range was mainly between +/-3 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near its background levels for the
next three UT days, 30 July 01 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11202110
Cocos Island 1 11101010
Darwin 3 11202011
Townsville 4 11212111
Learmonth 3 12202200
Alice Springs 2 01202001
Gingin 3 12201110
Canberra 2 02111000
Hobart 2 10211100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 5 23202210
Mawson 8 52201110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 3010 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 5 Quiet
31 Jul 5 Quiet
01 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 29 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly quiet during the next three UT days, 30
July 01 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 30 July 01 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were near
predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced on UT day 29 July.
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 30 July 01 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 45000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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