[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 July 20 issued 2332 UT on 05 Jul 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 6 09:32:03 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 05 July. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible disc
(AR 2766 at N04 E05). No active regions are expected to rotate
onto the visible disc. Very Low solar activity is expected for
the next three UT days, 06 to 08 July. An eastward CME was observed
in SOHO LASCO imagery starting around 05/1400, possibly due to
a prominence lifting off from the southeast solar limb. The CME
was also observed in STEREO A but was faint. This event is not
expected to be geoeffective due to its origin on the SE limb
but it will be further analysed to determine if it has any Earth-directed
component. No other Earthward directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph images. During UT day 05 July, the
solar wind speed increased from around 420 km/s to a maximum
of 530 km/s at 05/0737 UT, currently around 450 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) reached a maximum of 10.6 nT at 05/0051 UT, currently
varying between 4 to 8 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz)
reached a minimum of -8.8 nT at 05/0359 UT, currently varying
between -6/+5 nT. During the next UT day, 06 July, the solar
wind speed is expected to remain moderately enhanced due to a
north polar extension coronal hole, returning to background levels
on 07 and 08 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22331121
Cocos Island 4 12210022
Darwin 6 12331111
Townsville 8 23332111
Learmonth 8 22332122
Alice Springs 7 12332121
Gingin 9 22331132
Canberra 6 12331111
Hobart 9 22432121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 13 12543101
Casey 10 23322133
Mawson 42 54453247
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1111 2134
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul 5 Quiet
08 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 05 July, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
to Unsettled in the Australian region, with Hobart station observing
one Active period. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic conditions
were Quiet to Active with some isolated Minor Storm periods.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled
for the next UT day, 06 July, due to coronal hole effects from
a north polar extension coronal hole, returning to mainly Quiet
conditions on UT days 07-08 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 05 July. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 06-08 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 2 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 2 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted
to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 05 July. The Cocos Island
region observed some mild depressions during the local day. Sporadic
E was observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted
to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 06 to 08
July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 26700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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