[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 4 09:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 03 July. Very
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 04
to 06 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. During UT day 03 July, the solar wind speed
varied between 280 km/s and 330 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between
1 and 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) in the range
-4 to 2 nT. During the next UT day, 04 July, the solar wind speed
is expected to vary between its background levels and slightly
enhanced values due to possible minor coronal hole effects. The
solar wind may become moderately enhanced on UT days 05-06 July
due to a north polar extension coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01110000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 01110001
Learmonth 0 01100000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 0 01000000
Canberra 0 01010000
Hobart 1 01120000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 01020000
Casey 1 01110000
Mawson 3 22101011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 6 Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
05 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active
periods
06 Jul 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 03 July, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly Quiet for the next UT day, 04 July,
with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods due to weak coronal
hole effects. Geomagnetic activity may increase to Unsettled
levels on UT days 05-06 July, with a chance of isolated Active
periods on 05 July, due to possible coronal hole effects from
a north polar extension coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 03 July. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 04-06 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted
to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 03 July. Sporadic E was
observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly
enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 04 to 06 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 26500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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