[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 01 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 2 09:31:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 July. Very
low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 02
to 04 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. During UT day 01 July, the solar wind speed
varied mostly between 320 km/s and 345 km/s, the total IMF (Bt)
between 3 and 7 nT, the north-south IMF component (Bz) in the
range +4/-4 nT and the solar wind particle density between 3
and 15 ppcc. During the next three UT days, 02 to 04 July, the
solar wind speed is expected to vary between its background levels
and slightly enhanced values due to possible minor coronal hole
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 1 01110010
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 2 11210011
Learmonth 2 11100021
Alice Springs 1 01100010
Gingin 1 11100010
Canberra 0 00000011
Hobart 2 11110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 12100011
Mawson 12 32220135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2210 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
03 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
04 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: On UT day 01 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated
unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for the next
three UT days, 02 to 04 July, with small possibility of isolated
unsettled periods due to week coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 30 June. The enhancements were observed mostly
during local night. Sporadic E and spread F were observed at
times over some sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days,
02 to 04 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted
to mildly enhanced levels on UT day 01 July. The enhancements
were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E and spread
F were observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days,
02 to 04 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 20500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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