[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 01 Jul 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 2 09:31:24 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jul             03 Jul             04 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 July. Very 
low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 02 
to 04 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. During UT day 01 July, the solar wind speed 
varied mostly between 320 km/s and 345 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) 
between 3 and 7 nT, the north-south IMF component (Bz) in the 
range +4/-4 nT and the solar wind particle density between 3 
and 15 ppcc. During the next three UT days, 02 to 04 July, the 
solar wind speed is expected to vary between its background levels 
and slightly enhanced values due to possible minor coronal hole 
effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Cocos Island         1   01110010
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           2   11210011
      Learmonth            2   11100021
      Alice Springs        1   01100010
      Gingin               1   11100010
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Hobart               2   11110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                2   12100011
      Mawson              12   32220135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2210 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
03 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
04 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: On UT day 01 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet 
in the Australian region. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated 
unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for the next 
three UT days, 02 to 04 July, with small possibility of isolated 
unsettled periods due to week coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced 
levels on UT day 30 June. The enhancements were observed mostly 
during local night. Sporadic E and spread F were observed at 
times over some sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly 
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 
02 to 04 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jul     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -1
Jul      -12
Aug      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted 
to mildly enhanced levels on UT day 01 July. The enhancements 
were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E and spread 
F were observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in 
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near monthly 
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 
02 to 04 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 328 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:    20500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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